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Why climate change is such a concern
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Mankind has changed the climate
Flooding in Jakarta, Indonesia - World Meteorological Organization [1]
Flooding in Jakarta, Indonesia - World Meteorological Organization [1] - average temperatures have increased, and there are more storms, floods, heatwaves and wildfires
- sea levels are rising
- the effects are cumulative and irreversible with current technology
- climate deaths - e.g. each year's CO2 emissions from the UK will result in around 150,000 climate deaths
- climate refugees
- loss of biodiversity, e.g. coral reef blanching
- the more CO2 is added to the atmosphere, the faster sea levels will rise.
- in the Paris Agreement,countries made commitments to limit global warming to well under 2°C (usually taken to mean 1.7°C), and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C
- this means rapidly ending the use of fossil fuels, halving global CO2 emissions by 2030
- the scientific advice was that these commitments required "rapid and far-reaching transitions"throughout society
- but governments have not acted in line with the promises given - actions are completely at variance with the speed of change needed.
- the global total of CO2 emissions has continued to rise
- in developed countries, emissions are not falling in line with promises made
- the global temperature rise (longer term average) reached around 1.3°C in 2024- and at its current rate will reach 1.5°C in 2030, and 1.7°C in 2036.
- extreme weather events are increasing
- the risks of catastrophic tipping points are steadily increasing.
- governments have a poor record of decision making
- the UN Secretary-General has warned: "Some government and business leaders are saying one thing - but doing another. Simply put, they are lying."
- despite the global temperature rise being likely to reach the Paris agreed limit of 1.5°C in 2030, governments continue to talk about Net Zero 2050 as if this is an acceptable timescale
- climate protesters who are very aware of the situation are very vocal and not deterred by long prison sentences.
Mankind has changed the climate
This has changed the climate
- increased temperatures, now on average 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels
- more storms and floods - and of greater severity
- more droughts, heatwaves and wildfires - and of greater severity.
Sea levels are rising as polar ice caps and glaciers melt. Sea levels have already risen about 20cm compared to pre-industrial levels, and are currently rising about 4cm per decade. As the earth warms up, sea levels rise more quickly. Even once the burning of fossil fuels has ended, sea levels will continue to rise, because the high temperatures will remain high, and ice will continue to melt.
The consequences are severe: deaths, refugees and devastation of the natural world
Coral reef bleaching
Photo: ©The Ocean Agency/Ocean Image Bank
Photo: ©The Ocean Agency/Ocean Image Bank
- climate deaths: about one climate-related death per 4000 tonnes CO2 put in the atmosphere - so, for example, each year's CO2 emissions from the UK will result in around 150,000 climate deaths
- climate refugees
- the lifetime emissions from six average UK residents are sufficient to cause one climate-related death, and probably several refugees
- loss of biodiversity, e.g. coral reef blanching.
The changes are progressive and irreversible by current technology
The effects are progressive - e.g.- if global warming reaches 2°C, most coral reefs will have been permanently lost
- the more CO2 is added to the atmosphere, the faster sea levels will rise.
- as the temperature rises, there is an increasing risk of reaching tipping points, i.e. points at which large irreversible catastrophic changes will occur, such as changes in ocean currents.
But the consequnces are not equally distributed
Attribution: Nasa Spaceplace - It is the hottest parts of the world that are affected most by rising temperatures
- It is the Caribbean and south-east Asia that are most affected by tropical cyclones (also termed hurricanes and typhoons depending on location)
- It is the low-lying parts of the world that are most affected by rising sea levels - including low-lying Pacific islands, and parts of Bangladesh
- it is the richest countries that are generating the CO2 emissions and the poorest countries that are suffering the worst effects
The developed countries are the most responsible for climate change and are the least affected
But the consequnces of climate change are worst in the Global South, far away - and so climate change is often seen as unimportant in the north - and extremes of heat are oftgen seen as beneficial - so there is much complacency about climate change in developed countries.
The poorest countries are the most affected by climate change and are the least responsible
Attribution: Walking Pictures [2] This amounts to a gross injustice. The comfortable lifestyles in the rich countries are obtained at the expense of inflicting deaths and misery on the planet's poorest communities.
The current debates over ending the use of fossil fuels are akin to the debate in the UK in the 1830s over whether to end slavery.
This injustice is not just geographical - it is temporal as well - future generations will have to cope with the continuing consequences of climate change, including steadily rising sea levels, despite bearing no responsibility for them.
Promises were made to limit the harm from fossil fuels, but have not been kept
- In the Paris Agreement,countries made commitments to limit global warming to well under 2°C (usually taken to mean 1.7°C), and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C
- this meant rapidly ending the use of fossil fuels, halving global CO2 emissions by 2030, faster in developed countries
- the scientific advice was that these commitments required "rapid and far-reaching transitions"throughout society
- but developed countries have not reduced emissions as promised and global emissions have actually increased
- despite the global temperature rise being likely to reach the Paris agreed limit of 1.5°C in 2030, governments continue to talk about Net Zero 2050 as if this is an acceptable timescale
- government actions are completely at variance with the speed of change needed
- there has been continued road building and airport expansion
- the need to insulate houses has been largely ignored.
The climate has continued to deteriorate
- the global total of CO2 emissions has continued to rise
- in developed countries, emissions are not falling in line with promises made
- the global temperature rise (longer term average) reached around 1.3°C in 2024- and at its current rate will reach 1.5°C in 2030, and 1.7°C in 2036.
- if the original climate target limit of 1.5°C has to be replaced by 1.6°C, there will be an estimate 400 million more climate deaths, of which the UK will be responsible for 300,000 deaths [3].
- extreme weather events are increasing.
The risks of catastrophic tipping points are steadily increasing
If global warming continues, and the climate continues to change, tipping points in the climate system will be passed and changes will become abrupt and/or irreversible.The effects on the planet including mankind will then accelerate.
The most important tipping points are
- melting of ice e.g. irreversible meltdown of the Greenland ice sheet
- disruption of ocean currents and atmopheric circulation e.g. collapse of the oceanic Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)
- biosphere tipping points including large-scale dieback of the Amazon rainforest.
Governments cannot be relied on in crucial decisions
- governments have a poor record of decision making, e.g. in the UK, there is a recurring pattern of wasting billions on ineffective policies and ignoring effective policies, e.g.
- errors in the preparation for pandemics
- errors in procurement at the start of the covid-19 pandemic
- errors in procuring NHS IT.
- the UN Secretary-General
- has warned: "Some government and business leaders are saying one thing - but doing another. Simply put, they are lying."
- and has praised protesters for sounding the alarm
- climate protesters who are very aware of the situation are very vocal and not deterred by long prison sentences
Citizens should be very concerned and get involved
Those who feel that decisions should be based on facts and fairness should be very concerned about climate change because- it is a very serious problem - the biggest that humanity has faced - in terms of human deaths, refugees and changes to the natural world
- the changes to the climate are progressive and irreversible
- governments have been making very poor decisions, and are showing no sign of improving
- the current course is to disaster
- future generations deserve much better than this.
Citizens should
- aim to understand the science of climate change and the science of effective policy making
- collaborate with others to plan an effective response.
References
| [1] | https://www.flickr.com/photos/shanghaidaddy/382761698/in/faves-163849083@N02/ (accessed 16 Nov 2025) - licensed by https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.0/deed.en |
| [2] | Walking Pictures (2023) Oily Voices from Kenya https://vimeo.com/874877815 |
| [3] | https://carbonindependent.org/carbonbudgets.php |
First published: 13 Feb 2025