✖
Action needed
Action is needed, based on the science of climate change and the science of policy making.
Correct the flawed decision making, in advocacy groups, and in decision makers in government and across society
There is much talk of evidence-based policy making, as if that is adequate, but it is easy for decision makers to find some piece of evidence that fits with their preferred course of action and ignore the rest.
Instead, there is a need to apply the full rigour of science to the policy making process - which will be referred to here as science-based policy making. This means
Decide on the speed of change
Disseminate accurate information
Take personal action
Advocate radical collective action across society
Challenge what is out of line with the science
There is much talk of evidence-based policy making, as if that is adequate, but it is easy for decision makers to find some piece of evidence that fits with their preferred course of action and ignore the rest.
Instead, there is a need to apply the full rigour of science to the policy making process - which will be referred to here as science-based policy making. This means
- honesty and transparency
- pooling of evidence, and agreeing a fair summary of it
Things that appear to be obvious are not necessarily true.
Despite appearances, the squares marked A and B in the optical illusion are actually the same shade of grey! 
Attribution: Edward H. Adelson: Checker shadow illusion
Attribution: Edward H. Adelson: Checker shadow illusion- acceptance that decision making on climate change has been poor in all groups - due to optimism bias, overconfidence bias, groupthink, denial, etc - and that measures are needed to overcome these biases, to scrutinise decisions and remove errors
- aiming for a consensus of reasonable people by
- checking for consistency with others
- working with others to resolve any inconsistencies
- challenging anything inconsistent or misleading
- resulting in a reasoned explanation of any decision, with enough detail included or referenced to ensure that any reasonable person would come to the same conclusion (reproducibility)
- shared decision making (SDM) so that all parts of society are involved
- emergency (not routine) action
- e.g. a linear pathway to Net Zero 2030 for the UK
- explain that current affluent lifestyles are unsustainable, and will end one way or another
- explain the promises made in the Paris Agreement and the choices that the UK has
- anticipate shock and anger
- be part of the solution rather than part of the problem
- reduce fossil fuel use as fast as possible
- reduce fossil fuel use very rapidly, including a massive programme of insulation, ending leisure aviation, much reduced vehicle mileage, and restructuring of the food supply
- a rapidly increasing carbon tax.
- challenge inadequate government action.
- challenge misinformation - whatever the source
- stop advocates of climate action contradicting the IPCC and each other, e.g. Friends of the Earth's endorsing of the UK Government's Net Zero 2050 timescale
Action is needed, based on the essential background climate information and the science of decision making (see carbonindependent.org/184.html).
Good decision making is needed, from all parts of society
- correct the current widespread errors in decision making
- science-based decision making, i.e. adopt the principles of scientific rigor in decision making
- accept that decision making is often flawed due to numerous cognitive biases
- accept that decision making on climate change has been poor in all groups
- adopt procedures to scrutinise decisions and remove errors
- people should be able and willing to justify their decisions
- shared decision making (SDM) so that all parts of society are involved
Particular groups have particular responsibilities:
- decision makers in government should be open to correction
- "advisers advise and politicians decide" is an inadequate approach
- objections and protesters should be taken seriously and answered adequately
- there should be transparency over whether protesters are treated as trouble-makers or whistle blowers
- media should ensure adequate referencing to original sources
- advocacy groups should campaign in line with the science, and be prepared to challenge others who are not
- people objecting to or protesting about government decisions should make clear where they feel the government has erred.
Use a checklist to ensure conformity with the science and the Paris Agreement, including:
- the degree of urgency of action: emergency (not routine) action
- a limit to global warming e.g. 1.5°C or 1.6°C
- staying within the appropriate carbon budget
- equity between nations
- including all CO2 emissions
- double digit percentage annual emission cuts: a pathway to e.g. Net Zero 2030
- credibly compliant policies
- avoiding false solutions
Disseminate accurate information
- be prepared to explain that the current affluent lifestyle of many
- is unsustainable
- is at the expense of misery and premature death of some of the poorest people in the world
- will end one way or another, either in a controlled way of our own volition or through breakdown of societies
- is contrary to the promises made in the Paris Agreement
- anticipate shock and anger
Take personal action
- reduce fossil fuel use as fast as possible
Advocate collective action across society
- reduce fossil fuel use very rapidly, including a massive programme of insulation, ending leisure aviation, much reduced vehicle mileage, and restructuring of the food supply.
- a rapidly increasing carbon tax.
Challenge current misinformation, and actions and policies that are inconsistent with the science
Current examples are- the UK Government's claims that the UK has halved emissions since 1990 - but the reduction is 12.0 (1990) to 8.0 (2022) tonnes CO2 per person per year, i.e. a reduction of only one third once imports and aviation are included [1]
- the UK Government claims that its Net Zero 2050 Strategy satisfies the UK's international commitments - but it would take three times the UK's fair share of the global carbon budget for 1.5°C
- the UK Government's Net Zero 2050 strategy pretends that no radical change in society is needed, just gradual decarbonisation - but the UK's fair carbon budget for a 50% chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C runs out in 2027
- the campaign of Friends of the Earth to insist that the UK Government has a strategy that will deliver its Net Zero 2050 target (even though they know it is the wrong target)
- a comment by a UK Government minister in 2025 about expanding Heathrow Airpost was met by campaigns to oppose airport expansion rather than a statement that the UK should be closing most airports within a few months.
References
| [1] | From Our World in Data (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/consumption-co2-per-capita, and https://ourworldindata.org/carbon-footprint-flying); and UK Government data (https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/65c0d15863a23d0013c821e9/2022-final-greenhouse-gas-emissions-statistical-release.pdf) |
First published: 13 Feb 2025