Allocation of the residual global carbon budget between countries

How should the residual carbon budget be divided between countries?

In order to be confident of keeping global warming to less than 1.5°C, further global CO2 emissions must be kept below a total of 400 billion tonnes since 2020 - see document 54. This 400 billion tonnes is known as the residual carbon budget; it is currently dwindling at a rate of 34 billion tonnes per year.

A vital question on which there is little discussion is what principle should be used to divide this residual carbon budget between countries.

Possible ways of dividing the residual carbon budget


Considerations in dividing the residual carbon budget


Conclusion

The only justifiable principle for allocation of the residual carbon budget is that the developed countries take no more than their fair per-capita share.

Who is advocating a fair allocation of the residual carbon budget?


Who is advocating that developed countries take much more than a fair allocation of the residual carbon budget?


References

[1]The Paris Agreement (2015)https://unfccc.int/files/meetings/paris_nov_2015/application/pdf/paris_agreement_english_.pdf
[2]Tyndall Centre The Tyndall carbon budget tool (2019) https://carbonbudget.manchester.ac.uk/reports/
[3]UK Government Net Zero Strategy: Build Back Greener (Oct 2021) https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/net-zero-strategy


First published: 25 Oct 2021
Last updated: 27 Oct 2021