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Fallacies and cognitive biases currently dominate opinions and public policy making

The current process of making public policy (such as how to stop climate change) is failing.

Current methods give different answers to the same question e.g. how much investment should be put into cycling. Which policy is correct is hardly ever discussed by those in positions of power.

Scientific methods have evolved to overcome biases and give correct answers to complex questions

The essence of scientific methods is that they give correct answers to questions that we feel have correct answers. We are confident that they work because (a) they give consistent answers, and (b) they make accurate predictions.

Some key points of scientific methods are

• absolute honesty and zero tolerance of dishonesty
• treating each other with respect
• working together to resolve uncertainties and disagreements
• giving sources for all contentious statements so that the statements can be checked, and the evidence base is shared
• being open to scrutiny and challenge, and answering any challenge to the satisfaction of any reasonable challenger
• developing a robust evidence based consensus

Scientific methods are needed in policy making in climate change and other major problems

The use is currently common within the medical and associated professions, but needs to be extended.

It seems clear that applying scientific methods to decision making more extensively would improve them enormously.

Decision making should be science-based, not just evidence-based

There has been a move to advocate evidence-based decision making, but unscrupulous politicians can just select a piece of evidence that fits with what they have decided to do, and claim that their decision is evidence-based.

The longer term goal should be to make all policy making science-based

If the process is fixed, the correct decisions will be made.

The immediate goal should be to make campaigning science-based

There is a need for

• consistent and accurate policy decisions
• campaigners to set the standard that those in positions of power should follow
• a minimum quality standard on policy making to be agreed
• identify and challenge fallacies
• avoiding inadvertent repetition of fallacies

Progress towards making climate policies science-based

Organisations taking a science-based approach are

• the youth climate activists
• Scientist for Global Responsibility and their Science Oath for the Climate [1]
• Extinction Rebellion

References

[1]	Scientists for Global Responsibility Science Oath for the Climate https://www.sgr.org.uk/projects/science-oath-climate-text-and-signing

First published: 16 Jan 2022
Last updated: 9 Apr 2022