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UK campaigning failures
Action on climate change has not gone as intended, and so it is important to assess what has gone wrong. The evidence regarding climate campaigning is that it has been generally poor and needs to improve.
The IPCC published its SR15 report in 2018. This clarified the importance of staying within the 1.5°C limit of global warming, and should have been followed by advocates of climate action helping to explain to decision makers and the wider public
In the UK, this meant radical changes including the use of fossil fuel ending by around 2030, ending leisure aviation; replacement of most private car journeys by walking, cycling and public transport; and a diet with much less meat and dairy.
But little of this has happened. Instead, every section of society has avoided discussing such radical change, preferring to advocate much lesser (more popular) measures. This phenomenon is referred to by climate psychologists as implicatory climate denial, and has also been referred to as climate urgency denial, mitigation denial, and by Greta Thunberg as "blah-blah-blah".
Amongst climate advocates, there has been
The end result is that campaigners have understated the urgency of climate action and advocated inadequate policies and have continued to do so even when alerted to the messaging and advocated policies being inadequate. At the same time they have criticised the government and other organisations for doing the same thing. Campaigners have contributed to the climate denial that is widespread across society.
The same failure has been repeated in other countries, with the consequence that global warming is now around 1.4°C, and it looks as if the 1.5°C target will be missed.
Many climate campaigners complain that populism is dominating politics and threatening to reverse climate action, but climate advocacy is also dominated by a similar populism. People are preferring to advocate measures that they think will be popular rather than explaining the choices that need to be made for a liveable future.
The famous quote from John Stuart Mill needs to be modified to
"All that is necessary for evil to triumph is for good people to look on and do the wrong thing".
Persistent campaigning failures have delayed effective action. Campaigning strategies need to be improved, and this should be helped by people agreeing and adhering to a Code of Practice for policy making.
The IPCC published its SR15 report in 2018. This clarified the importance of staying within the 1.5°C limit of global warming, and should have been followed by advocates of climate action helping to explain to decision makers and the wider public
- the climate science
- why climate change requires emergency action
- what actions were needed to comply with international commitments
- what errors governments were making.
In the UK, this meant radical changes including the use of fossil fuel ending by around 2030, ending leisure aviation; replacement of most private car journeys by walking, cycling and public transport; and a diet with much less meat and dairy.
- fragmentation of efforts
- inconsistent messaging, with groups contradicting the IPCC and each other
- deliberate self-censoring
- repetition of fallacies
- not clearly explaining the errors in government decision making.
"All that is necessary for evil to triumph is for good people to look on and do the wrong thing".
Individuals and groups who have been advocating action on climate change should all have had a similar message. They should all have
- publicised the climate science
- explained clearly why climate change requires emergency action
- made clear what people needed to do in order to comply with international commitments and moral obligations
- highlighted government errors
Instead, there has been
- fragmentation of efforts - there are many groups not coordinating their efforts
- inconsistent messaging, groups contradicting the IPCC and each other - leading to a cacophony of conflicting messages
- deliberate self-censoring [1]
- repetition of fallacies, e.g. advocating Net Zero dates and gradual decarbonisation
- not clearly explaining the errors in government decision making.
Climate denial in climate campaigners
An extraordinary feature of the inaction on climate change is is that most UK climate campaigning groups have engaged in implicatory climate denial, i.e. they have understated the gravity of the situation and advocated inadequate policies, and have continued to do so even when alerted to the actions and policies being inadequate.Some UK examples are
- Friends of the Earth - see document 139 and document 164 - Friends of the Earth has campaigned for the UK Government to keep to its Net Zero 2050 timescale of emission cuts despite knowing that the timescale is grossly inadequate, and that the Paris Agreement on 1.5°C requires UK fossil fuel use to be close to zero by 2030 - Friends of the Earth have responded to criticism by saying that "if they told the truth, they would not be believed" [2]
- the Zero Hour group (promoting the CAN Bill) - see document 174
- UKHACC (the UK Health Alliance on Climate Change) - see document 175
- the Climate Emergency UK group - see document 145
- Client Earth
- the Good Law Project
- Desmog UK.
Some arguments put forward for deliberately understating the gravity of the situation and the changes needed are:
- [telling the truth would mean] "the right-wing press would have a field day"
- [telling the truth] "would be an own goal"
- "action in line with the Paris Agreement would not be politically possible".
An example: Leisure aviation
An implication of the Paris Agreement is that leisure aviation would be phased out quickly, e.g. within a year in high emission countries such as the UK. This is because global CO2 emissions needed to be halved by 2030 in order to meet the 1.5° commitment, and the halving of emissions needed to be twice as quick in high emission countries (to comply with the Paris Agreement commitment to equity between countries), requiring annual emission cuts of over 10% - and cutting out leisure aviation is the easiest change to make.But climate campaigners have been very reluctant to say this - see the exchange on Twitter. So the crucial information about urgency of change has been suppressed, and leisure aviation has not just continued, but there are plans to increase it.
Conclusion
The end result is that campaigners have understated the urgency of climate action and advocated inadequate policies - and at the same time they have criticised the government and other organisations for doing just this. Campaigners have contributed to the climate denial that is widespread across society.There is a famous quote from John Stuart Mill [3] that can be paraphrased as
All that is necessary for evil to triumph is for good people to look on and do nothing.
Evil is clearly triumphing at present - global CO2 emissions are still rising. Looking at the global efforts to stop climate change, it seems that this quote should be modified to
All that is necessary for evil to triumph is for good people to look on and do the wrong thing.since an examination of the effort being made shows that much of it is unlikely to be effective, and may even be counterproductive.
Campaigning strategies need to be improved. It is not clear how best to combat climate denial in climate activists, but some initiatives are
- education
- the Science Oath of Scientists for Global Responsibility (see Appendix)
- the #BringScienceToPolitics campaign of Scientists for Extinction Rebellion.
References
| [1] | Turning delusion into climate action - Prof Kevin Anderson, an interview (2020) Responsible Science https://www.sgr.org.uk/resources/turning-delusion-climate-action-prof-kevin-anderson-interview |
| [2] | Personal communication |
| [3] | John Stuart Mill (1867) St Andrew's University address https://www.openculture.com/2016/03/edmund-burkeon-in-action.html (viewed 11 Feb 2022) |
| [4] | https://www.sgr.org.uk/projects/science-oath-climate-text-and-signing |
Appendix: The SGR Climate Oath
Scientists for Global Responsibility have published a Science Oath for the Climate [4] in an initiative to improve the outcome of campaigning:Science has no higher purpose than to understand and help maintain the conditions for life to thrive on Earth. We may look beyond our planet with wonder and learn, but this is our only viable home.Our dwelling though is critically threatened by the loss of the stable climate which has allowed humanity to flourish. We pledge to act in whatever ways we are able, in our lives and work, to prevent catastrophic climate disruption.To translate this pledge into a force for real change, we will:
- explain honestly, clearly and without compromise, what scientific evidence tells us about the seriousness of the climate emergency.
- not second-guess what might seem politically or economically pragmatic when describing the scale and timeframe of action needed to deliver the 1.5°C and 2°C commitments, specified in the Paris Climate Agreement. And, speak out about what is not compatible with the commitments, or is likely to undermine them.
- to the best of our abilities, and mindful of the urgent need for systemic change, seek to align our own behaviour with the climate targets, and reduce our own personal carbon emissions to demonstrate the possibilities for change.
With courtesy and firmness, we will hold our professional associations, institutions and employers to these same standards, and invite our colleagues across the scientific community to sign, act on and share this pledge.
First published: 4 Feb 2022