UK Government deceit: overclaiming the reduction in UK CO2 emissions
The UK Government persistently claims it has achieved a fall in CO2 emissions of over 40% since 1990, but the real fall is only about 11%.
How does the UK Government get its figures?
The figures claimed by the UK Government are obtained by
- ignoring imports and exports
- omitting aviation and shipping
- omitting any discussion of the most appropriate measure.
Examples of the the Government's claims
- The Government's 2021 Net Zero Strategy [1]: Boris Johnson in his Foreward claimed "Over the last three decades we have already reduced our emissions by 44 per cent". The document also claims (p296) "The UK is at the forefront of measuring and publishing statistics of emissions generated overseas in the production of goods and services consumed by UK residents", but did not find room in the 368 pages to say what they are, even though they are widely available.
- Boris Johnson claimed in 2020: "We have cut our carbon emissions by nearly twice the EU average since 1990, 42%" [2].
What are the actual figures?
The chart shows the changes in UK greenhouse gas emissions since 1990. It is an edited version of a chart published by the UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy [3]:
- the blue (bottom) line is the figures that the Government quotes: just the territorial emissions, i.e. those released on the ground within the UK
- the green (top) line shows the total including imports and exports (called 'consumption-based emissions')
The actual fall including aviation but excluding shipping can be estimated as 11% (from 990Mt in 1990 to 880Mt in 2016) - see Appendix.
Why should imports and exports be included?
Over the last three decades, much manufacturing of items sold in the UK has been transferred from the UK to overseas, especially China and India. The items are manufactured only because of the purchasing in the UK. It is clearly of no benefit to the climate emergency to merely transfer manufacturing from one country to another - the world total is unaffected (or might actually be increased due to the transport emissions).
Conclusion
The UK Government is making a big thing of the UK "leading the world" in emission reduction - but it is not true. It is major deceit on an issue of vital importance. The false claims have continued despite the objections. The strategy seems to be that if it is repeated often enough, people will believe it. It is not just a single aberration but systematic institutionalised deceit.
This deceit is one of several UK Government climate deceits - see
document 106.
Who is speaking up about the deceit?
- Leeds University academics in the report commissioned by the WWF [4]
- Prof Kevin Anderson, Tyndall Centre, Manchester [5]
- Greta Thunberg (e.g. in her speech to MPs [6]) and accusing the UK Government of lying (2021) [7]
- Fridays for Future Open letter [8]
- George Monbiot & Leo Murray in an excellent animation: Carbon Omissions [9]
- The Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn [10]
- Extinction Rebellion protesters [11]
Who is repeating the deceit?
- The UK Government's Climate Change Committee, e.g. its Dec 2020 report [12]
- Carbon Brief Mar 2021 report [13] (the small print mentions the omission of aviation and imports, but does not give their scale)
- Much of the UK media and many commentators - presumably often inadvertently
How is the UK Government responding to the criticisms?
It isn't, which is an indication that the deceit is deliberate. If the Government cares about getting things right, why is there no transparency and accountability?
Action needed
People who care about Truth and Justice, and about leaving children a habitable planet should
- avoid repeating the deceit
- call out the deceit wherever possible
- avoid repeating other Government deceits - uncaring and deceitful administrations can remain in power through their deceits being inadvertently repeated and becoming the norm.
Appendix
The figures for emssions from aviation by UK citizens are obtained from
- figures for aviation fuel used in the UK [14]
- a conversion factor of 2.5 tonnes CO2 per tonne oil equivalent, to give CO2 generated [15]
- increase by a factor of 1.9 to allow for radiative forcing [16]
- increase by a factor of 2.38 to allow for (a) return flights, and (b) the proportion of passengers at UK airports who are UK nationals [16]
Uncertainties include how much fuel is used taken on at refueling stops, and how many UK citizens make a short flight to a European airport as the first leg on a long distance flight.
Notes and references
First published: 2 Apr 2021
Last updated: 1 Nov 2021
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