The UK Government persistently claims it has achieved a fall in UK greenhouse gas emissions of over 40% since 1990, but the real fall, once imports/exports, aviation and shipping are included, is only about 18%, i.e. around 0.5% per year.
The UK government has continued with its claims despite repeated criticism, which suggests that the fallacy is a deliberate attempt to deceive.
How does the UK Government get its figures?
The figures claimed by the UK Government are obtained by
- ignoring imports and exports
- omitting aviation and shipping
- omitting any discussion of the most appropriate measure.
What are the actual figures?
The chart shows the changes in UK greenhouse gas emissions since 1990, not including aviation and shipping emissions.
It is an edited version of a chart published by the UK Department for Energy Security & Net Zero (DESNZ) [1] (their Figure 1).
- The blue (top) line shows the total including emissions generated in the production of imported goods, and excluding emissions generated in the production of goods that are exported (called 'consumption-based emissions').
- The green (bottom) line gives the figures that the Government quotes: just the territorial emissions, i.e. releases of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere within the UK, ignoring emissions generated in the production of imported goods, and including emissions generated in the production of exported goods.
The actual fall from 1990 to 2022 including imports/exports, aviation and shipping can be calculated from UK Government figures to be just 18% - see Table 1.
Table 1: UK Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions (million tonnes CO2 equivalent)
| 1990 | 2022 | Change | Source |
|---|
| Consumption emissions (i.e. including imports/exports) | 921 | 740 | | UK Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (DEFRA) [2] Sheet 2 |
| Aviation | 16 | 28 | | UK Department for Energy Security & Net Zero (DESNZ) [3] Table 5.1 |
| Shipping | 8 | 6 | | Ditto |
| Total | 945 | 774 | -18% | |
The figure generally quoted by the UK Government is the reduction in territorial emissions i.e. excluding imports/exports, aviation and shipping - see Table 2.
Table 2: UK Territorial Greenhouse Gas Emissions (million tonnes CO2 equivalent)
| 1990 | 2022 | Change | Source |
|---|
| Territorial emissions (i.e. excluding imports/exports) | 811 | 405 | -50% | UK Department for Energy Security & Net Zero (DESNZ) [3] Table 1.1 |
Examples of the UK Government's claims
- The Government's 2021 Net Zero Strategy [4]: Boris Johnson in his Foreward claimed "Over the last three decades we have already reduced our emissions by 44 per cent". The document also claims (p296) "The UK is at the forefront of measuring and publishing statistics of emissions generated overseas in the production of goods and services consumed by UK residents", but did not find room in the 368 pages to say what they are, even though they are widely available.
- Boris Johnson claimed in 2020: "We have cut our carbon emissions by nearly twice the EU average since 1990, 42%" [5].
Why should imports and exports be included?
Over the last three decades, much manufacturing of items sold in the UK has been transferred from the UK to overseas, especially to China and India. The items are manufactured only because of the purchasing in the UK. It is clearly of no benefit to tackling the climate emergency to merely transfer manufacturing from one country to another - the world total emissions is unaffected, or might actually increase due to the transport emissions.
Conclusion
The UK Government puts much emphasis on the UK "leading the world" in emission reduction - but it is not true. It is major fallacy on an issue of vital importance. The false claims have continued despite the objections. It is not just a single aberration but appears to be systematic institutionalised deceit.
This fallacy is one of several UK Government climate fallacies - see
Document 106.
Who is speaking up about the fallacy?
- Leeds University academics in their 2020 report commissioned by the WWF [6]
- Prof Kevin Anderson, Tyndall Centre, Manchester [7][8]
- Greta Thunberg, e.g. (a) in her speech to MPs [9], and (b) in accusing the UK Government of lying (2021) [10]
- The Fridays for Future open letter [11]
- George Monbiot & Leo Murray in an excellent animation from 2013: Carbon Omissions [12]
- The Labour Party in 2019 under the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn [13]
- Extinction Rebellion protesters repeatedly [14].
Who is repeating the fallacy?
- The UK Government's Climate Change Committee, e.g. in its Dec 2020 report [15]
- Carbon Brief in its 2021 report [16] - the small print mentions the omission of aviation and imports, but does not give their scale
- Much of the UK media and many commentators.
How is the UK Government responding to the criticisms?
It does not respond, which suggests that the fallacy is deliberate. If the Government is committed to high standards of administration, there should be transparency and accountability.
Action needed
People who care about basing policies on facts and fairness should
- avoid repeating the fallacy
- call out the fallacy wherever possible
- avoid repeating other Government fallacies.
Notes and references
First published: 2 Apr 20210
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