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From [127] on 11.2.22 ==================================

With the failure of COP26, and the general failure of governments to take effective action against climate change, it is clearly up to citizens to be much more involved in the decision making.

, and looking at the amount of inconsistent and contradictory campaigning on the climate (in the personal experience of the author), the above quote should be replaced by

All that ... do the wrong thing

.
If campaigners do not agree on what needs to be done, and do not present a clear and consistent message, then the arguments opposing change are likely to win by default.

So we need to identify the reasons for inconsistency in campaigning, and address them.


Before 5.2.22 =====================================

Campaigners are often inconsistent e.g.

• promoting different actions, which may sometimes be contradictory
• inadvertently repeating fallacies that other campaigners are campaigning against.

Campaigners should be more consistent, by

• identifying inconsistencies and working together to eliminate them
• challenging each other and welcoming challenges
• being willing and able to justify statements by including
• references to reliable sources
• FAQ sections and documents

For climate change, a key point is to include that "emission cuts of over 10% per year are needed" - and better would be "emission cuts of well over 10% per year"

For climate change, several groups are campaigning for governments and everyone to tell the truth, e.g.

• youth climate activists
• Extinction Rebellion
• Scientist for Global Responsibility

but there is no agreed "truth" on many policy questions.

One option should be raised (before being rejected) of attempting to get agreement between the diffferent groups on what the truth is, but problems with this approach could well be it is

• too open-ended
• too cumbersome
• too susceptible to disagreement over details holding up the whole process

so it is worth reflecting that it is not so much the truth we want to focus on, but the errors in the process especially fallacies.
Focussing on errors, flaws and fallacies would mean

• problems can be tackled one at a time, without needing to be comprehensive
• the worst can be tackled first.

Jots 4.2.22
'woh 18:35

• work together to challenge and eliminae fallacies in the wider world
• identify those who are not to be trusted
• use the methods of science to develop a consensus
• with measures to try to avoid overconfidence, groupthink etc
• for campaigners to change other people is hard - it hsould be easier for campaigners to change themselves - to make sure they are acting with maximum effectiveness

From [36] on 10.2.22 ====================================



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From [109] 3.2.22 ======================================

• CCC timescale linear decline from current value which is 10 tonnes CO2 per person per year
• Government Net Zero 2050 timescale similar
• implication is that compatible with the Paris Agreement (but nowhere discussed whether it is)
• who is acting as if it is acceptable
• most officials and politicians
• FoE
• who is telling the truth
• Tyndall Centre
• youth climate activists
• XR
• action needed: identify and challenge

References


From [34] 28.1.22 ==================================

• avoiding "playground level" or "pub level" non-engagement

There is a need for a critical mass of people committed to

• telling the truth
• working together
• basing decisions on fairness and justice
• finding a robust evidence-based consensus on what the solutions are

to start the ball rolling, and invite others to join this enterprise.

We might call this a "Safe System" approach to decision making.

From [40] 22.1.22 ===========================


Not a new idea
what's used in science


Before 19.1.22 ======================

From [34]
Solution is to use methods in science to form opinions and policies

to resolve differences of opinion i.e. what should be called uncertainties

Recognise it�s a system failure

Improve all aspects of the system

well-meaning people need to
- combine
- cooperatively rational methods as NM has long advocated
- develop a robust ev-based consensus
- work with other areas
- personal action
- deep cuts in emissions
- challenge and educate





Methods have been developed in science to overcome personal biases in order to reach correct answers, including

• absolute honesty
• treating each other with respect
• avoiding "playground level" or "pub level" non-engagement
• giving sources for all contentious statements so that they can be checked
• working together to resolve uncertainties and disagreements
• developing a robust evidence based consensus

what needs to be done

• stp the bad actions
• implement the actions needed
• tackle the barriers to action
• deliberagte deceit

The methods used in science have created the problems that we now face e.g. in enabling mankind to explot the earth's resources on a vast scale, and they need to be used to do this safely. This needs to be done throughout society.

It would be hard to change all of society in one go, but people who care can work to ensure that they themselves are not part of the problem - and form a critical mass of people forming a spin-free consensus as an example for others to join.

There is a need for a critical mass of people committed to

• telling the truth
• working together
• basing decisions on fairness and justice
• finding a robust evidence-based consensus on what the solutions are

to start the ball rolling, and invite others to join this enterprise.

We might call this a "Safe System" approach to decision making.

Some progress has so far been made by

• the youth strikers
• the Climate Oath of Scientists for Global Responsibility
• Extinction Rebellion

From [39] 21.1.22 =============================

fallacies can arise and spread e.g. herbs and plague

Before 19.1 ==================

Biases in forming opinions and making decisions are not being considered
and this is leading to

• numerous fallacies arising and being repeated
• deliberate deceit being committed, going unchallenged, and thriving
• people not considering the possibility that they themselves may be wrong (the infallibility fallacy) and instead jumping to the conclusion that anyone with a different view is

===================================
From [36] 17.1.22:=====================

Commitments have been made by countries
...

• to respect human rights via the United Nations Declaration of Human Rights

These commitments are necessary commitments given the seriousness of the climate situation, but actions are falling far short of what is needed.



From [34] 28.12.21 jots
How bad

• very - threat to everyone, especially youngest and those in most vulnerable parts of the world
• little progress

Why so bad when know for decades

• not because don't know what to do, not because we tried and failed, but because of bad decisions: haven't even tried

==========================================================
Residue from [34] at 15.1.22 ========================================

The UK and the other countries of the world are failing in their commitments




Biases in forming opinions are not being considered e.g.
...

• selfishness [?word]

First published: ###
Last updated: 11 Feb 2022