CO
2
budget calculator by country
Chart start:
end:
CO
2
budget calculator by country
1. Country
2. Global warming choices
(a) The limit to global warming:
°C
(b) Confidence in meeting this limit:
3. Accounting choices
(a)
or
emissions from imports & exports.
(b)
or
emissions from aviation.
(c)
or
equity between nations, i.e. the provision specified in the Paris Agreement.
4. Select pathways to display
A. Compliant pathways of CO
2
emission reduction:
Compliant linear decline in emissions
(emissions fall steadily to zero fast enough to comply with the CO
2
budget)
Emissions must fall by
20%
in the first year, and then the same amount each year, to zero in
2029
.
Compliant exponential decline in emissions
(emissions fall exponentially, i.e. with a constant halving time, fast enough to comply with the CO
2
budget)
Emissions must fall by
%
each year. Emissions never quite reach zero.
B. Specified pathways. The calculator assesses whether they are complaint with the CO2 budget.
Linear Net Zero 2050
(net emissions fall steadily to zero in 2050)
The pathway is
not compliant
with the CO
2
budget, which is used up in
2026
Linear Net Zero 2040
(net emissions fall steadily to zero in 2040)
The pathway is
within the CO
2
budget
.
Table.
Pathways of emission cuts. All figures are tonnes CO
2
per person
1: Linear decline (compliant)
2: Linear Net Zero 2050
Year
Residual CO
2
budget at start of year
CO
2
emissions during the year
Cumulative CO
2
emissions at end of year
Residual CO
2
budget at start of year
CO
2
emissions during the year
Cumulative CO
2
emissions at end of year
2020
50.0
8.5
8.5
50.0
8.5
8.5
2021
41.5
8.6
17.1
41.5
8.6
17.1
2022
32.9
8.3
25.4
32.9
8.3
25.4
2023
24.6
8.0
33.5
24.6
8.0
33.5
2024
16.5
6.5
39.9
16.5
7.7
41.2
2025
10.1
4.9
44.8
8.8
7.4
48.7
2026
5.2
3.3
48.1
1.3
7.2
55.8
2027
1.9
1.7
49.9
-5.8
6.9
62.7
2028
0.15
0.15
50.00
-12.7
6.6
69.2
2029
0
0
50
-19.2
6.3
75.5
2030
0
0
50
-25.5
6.0
81.4
2031
0
0
50
-31.4
5.7
87.1
2032
0
0
50
-37.1
5.4
92.5
2033
0
0
50
-42.5
5.1
97.5
2034
0
0
50
-47.5
4.8
102.3
2035
0
0
50
-52.3
4.5
106.8
2036
0
0
50
-56.8
4.2
110.9
2037
0
0
50
-60.9
3.9
114.8
2038
0
0
50
-64.8
3.6
118.4
2039
0
0
50
-68.4
3.3
121.7
2040
0
0
50
-71.7
3.0
124.6
2041
0
0
50
-74.6
2.7
127.3
2042
0
0
50
-77.3
2.4
129.7
2043
0
0
50
-79.7
2.1
131.8
2044
0
0
50
-81.8
1.8
133.6
2045
0
0
50
-83.6
1.5
135.1
2046
0
0
50
-85.1
1.2
136.3
2047
0
0
50
-86.3
0.9
137.2
2048
0
0
50
-87.2
0.6
137.7
2049
0
0
50
-87.7
0.3
138.0
2050
0
0
50
-88.0
0.0
138.0
2051
0
0
50
-88.0
0.0
138.0
2052
0
0
50
-88.0
0.0
138.0
2053
0
0
50
-88.0
0.0
138.0
2054
0
0
50
-88.0
0.0
138.0
2055
0
0
50
-88.0
0.0
138.0
2056
0
0
50
-88.0
0.0
138.0
2057
0
0
50
-88.0
0.0
138.0
2058
0
0
50
-88.0
0.0
138.0
2059
0
0
50
-88.0
0.0
138.0
2060
0
0
50
-88.0
0.0
138.0
Notes and sources
Global CO
2
budgets
The figures for the global CO
2
budget are taken from Table 5.8 (p753) of the AR6 WG1 report produced by the IPCC in 2021 - at
report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg1/IPCC_AR6_WGI_FullReport.pdf
.
Climate deaths
The figures for climate deaths are calculated on the basis of 1 death per 4000 tonnes CO
2
emitted - see
carbonindependent.org/144.html
.
Equity between nations
There is a provision in the Paris Agreement for equity between nations, but this is rarely mentioned in high emission countries - see
carbonindependent.org/122.html
.
Greenhouse gas emissions other than CO
2
This calculator considers only CO
2
emissions, and not other greenhouse gases such as methane and nitrous oxides. This is because these other gases are relatively short-lived in the atmosphere, e.g. methane lasts for about a decade, whereas CO
2
persists for hundreds or thousands of years.
Charts can be downloaded free of copyright
(right-click on the chart)
.
This web page can be printed out as a factsheet.
First published 16 Oct 2023
Last updated 8 Apr 2024